It finally happened. The nonsensical breakup and rebirth of the Big East Conference has had a trickle down effect that now has affected the Southern Conference and Elon University. While you were away lying on a beach, sleeping, or doing whatever else college students do on spring break, two of Elon’s fellow Southern Conference schools made a major decision. Appalachian State University and Georgia Southern University will be leaving the SoCon after the 2013-2014 academic year in favor of the Sun Belt Conference. Why would they do this? Don’t they know that Boone, N.C. to Elon is a much shorter trip than Boone to Monroe, La. (where Sun Belt member University of Louisiana at Monroe is located)?
The answer is simple. The Sun Belt plays Division I-FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) football. The SoCon plays Division I-FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) football. By moving up to FBS, the Mountaineers of Appalachian State and Eagles of Georgia Southern have access to greater football driven revenue, television money and exposure, and in a world where the computers have a say, a hypothetical shot at the national championship.
The College of Charleston Cougars also bolted the SoCon back in December, headed for the Colonial Athletic Association. The Cougars, however, do not play football, so that move was made based on basketball.
Now, the SoCon needs to react to survive and adapt. Survival has been a theme of SoCon history – after all, the league was founded in 1921 and not a single founding member still competes in the league. Heck, only five of the league’s remaining nine teams were even in the SoCon in 1996, less than 20 years ago.
The good news in this situation is that it appears that conference realignment will be finished relatively soon, with the SoCon and other smaller conferences making their reactive moves to the realignment of the major conferences. The bad news? The future of the SoCon is confusing and controversial.
Here’s the bottom line: The SoCon is in a situation similar to what the Big East (now American Athletic Conference) was in recently. The league’s current membership (not counting ASU, GSU, and CofC) is comprised of five private institutions – Elon, Davidson College, Wofford College, Furman University and Samford University; along with four public institutions – The Citadel, The University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Western Carolina University and The University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. These two groups have very different philosophies and academic standards. Among the small privates, Davidson (No. 12), Furman (No. 49), and Wofford (No. 63) appear on the national liberal arts college rankings from the U.S. News and World Report. Elon (No. 2) and Samford (No. 4) (http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/regional-universities-south) are highly ranked on the same source’s south regional university rankings.
The Citadel, a military college made up of 91% men, is the No. 5 school on that south regional list due to its unique situation. UNCG is No. 189 on the list of national universities. (A regional ranking does not mean that the university is less prestigious than a low-end nationally ranked school. See the US News and World Report for more.)
Western Carolina checks in at No. 37 among regional universities in the south, with Chattanooga nine spots lower at No. 46. Needless to say, there is a significant academic disparity that has divided the members of the conference.
So, which route is best for the Southern Conference? Where should the conference expand?
As someone who has followed this topic VERY closely in recent months, I have heard an absurdly large amount of rumors about the future of Elon athletics and the Southern Conference. I’m going to address a handful of them.
1. Elon goes to the Colonial Athletic Association, likely bringing along Furman
NO. This is not happening. Here’s why: The CAA is even more unstable than the SoCon. Once upon a time (say, 2011 or so) the CAA was the preeminent mid-major conference in the country for basketball and FCS football. Three CAA teams made the Men’s Basketball Tournament. A whopping five of the 20 teams in the FCS playoffs came from the CAA. Then, realignment happened. Virginia Commonwealth University and George Mason University bolted for the Atlantic 10 Conference, a conference on the fringe of major status in basketball. CAA football, which was (and still is) made up of teams from multiple basketball conferences, lost Old Dominion University to Conference USA, Georgia State University to the Sun Belt, and the University of Massachusetts to the Mid-American Conference. Odds are very likely that James Madison University is next, headed for the Sun Belt.
While the CAA did add College of Charleston for non-football sports, as well as Stony Brook University and the State University of New York at Albany for football, the conference is an ever-changing hodgepodge of schools. For basketball, the league is currently (counting James Madison, who, for all intents and purposes, might be gone by the time this is published) at nine members. These nine schools stretch from South Carolina (College of Charleston) to Massachusetts (Northeastern University), and consist of six public schools and three privates. Football has eleven members, stretching from Virginia to Maine, and consisting of nine public schools and two private schools.
This just does not make any sense for Elon. The closest conference trip would be to the University of North Carolina at Wilmington, nearly three hours away. Why would Elon ever want to travel to Northeastern for a basketball game on a Tuesday night? Or Maine for a football game? This league cannot even keep a solid membership together and is spread out over many, many states. Besides, the league only sent one team to March Madness this season, and that team wound up getting a 16 seed and played in a play-in game.
If the CAA survives, Elon will not be a part of it.
2. Southern SoCon Expansion, Emphasis on Football
This plan involves a few start-up football programs and keeping the SoCon’s footprint in the Deep South. The teams at the heart of the plan are Mercer University, Kennesaw State University, and East Tennessee State University, all current members of the Atlantic Sun Conference. There are a few main goals in this round SoCon expansion and rebuilding: increase basketball profile of the conference, replace Appalachian State and Georgia Southern’s football profile, and attempt fix this public/private mess.
This idea does none of that. We’ll start with football. None of these three teams played a single down in 2012. Mercer starts its program in 2013, with East Tennessee State and Kennesaw State in 2015. Yep. What a great replacement for the combined nine national championships of ASU and GSU.
Now, on to basketball. Kennesaw State was the seventh-worst team in the country in 2013 based on RPI (No. 341 of 348), and had a record of 3-27. That won’t help make Davidson more appealing to the tournament committee.
East Tennessee State? Not much better. Ranked 275th, the Buccaneers went 9-22 this season.
Mercer was the shining star of the group, coming in at 140 on the RPI rankings, and losing the Atlantic Sun championship to Florida Gulf Coast University. Yes, those Eagles would go on to the sweet sixteen, but does that make Mercer an adequate replacement for College of Charleston? No.
Have we talked academics yet? No? Let me tell you something. I like Mercer for academic reasons. The Macon, Ga. school is No. 7 on the US News and World Report south regional university list. It would fit in with Elon, Davidson, Furman, etc.
The other two schools are a different story. Kennesaw State is No. 61 on the south regional university list, (and has a reputation as a commuter school for its location northwest of Atlanta. East Tennessee State is unranked by the US News and World Report and has an 85.1% admissions rate, nearly 30% higher than Elon.
I can’t imagine the SoCon’s small private group being too thrilled with ETSU and KSU, given that they don’t bring much to the table athletically or academically. That might be just enough to lure this group of three together to the Big South Conference to play their football, a move that has been rumored as well.
3. SoCon Expands Within Its Own Footprint
Other sources have floated the names of North Carolina-Wilmington, Virginia Military Institute, the University of Richmond (football only), the College of William and Mary and Coastal Carolina University.
UNCW, Richmond, and William and Mary are currently CAA members, and at this juncture, have no real incentive to join the Southern Conference. They key phrase is “at this juncture”. When James Madison leaves (they will), these teams will have a bit more freedom to explore movement.
UNCW checks in at No. 14 on the south regional university list from the US News and World Report, just a few slots behind departing Appalachian State. As public universities go, it is not really a downgrade. The Seahawks do not offer football, however. The men’s basketball team was ranked at No. 300 in the RPI index with their 9-20 record – again, not an upgrade whatsoever for the conference. UNCW does have a strong baseball program (currently 33rd in RPI), a sport that the SoCon has historically been very strong in, but is in danger of fading due to the loss of Charleston and Georgia Southern. Also, the geography fits within the SoCon footprint and would give the conference a presence in the Wilmington media market.
Richmond doesn’t really merit much of a paragraph. They are No. 28 on the national liberal arts university list, but would only move to the SoCon for football only. Their basketball program is solidly in the Atlantic 10, which does not sponsor football. Richmond has a historic football rivalry with William and Mary, so I see Richmond’s football team simply following W&M.
Now, on to William and Mary. If the SoCon wants to keep all its current teams, William and Mary could be a “glue” team. William and Mary is the No. 33 national university, a very rigorous academic school that certainly appeals to the small privates. Yet, it is a public institution. It’s almost like being able to add a public and a private school at the same time. W&M has a historically strong football team (reached the national semifinals in 2009) with no desire or infrastructure to move up to FBS. William and Mary also would put the SoCon into the prestigious Tidewater media market of southeastern Virginia.
Virginia Military Institute is a former SoCon member that is currently a Big South member. VMI does play football, but has a men’s basketball team with the No. 304 RPI. VMI is in the middle of nowhere (Lexington, Va.), and is practically a twin of The Citadel, with no women’s basketball. Moving from the Big South to the SoCon does not offer VMI too much, and why would the SoCon want a second military school?
Coastal Carolina is another interesting case. The Chanticleers are one of the top baseball programs in the country, and have a football team that is on the rise, qualifying for the FCS playoffs last season. Again, the basketball team is not much of an upgrade, checking in at 262nd in RPI. Men’s Soccer is also top notch at Coastal, as they have eliminated Elon from the NCAA tournament two years in a row. The major holdup with Coastal Carolina? Academics. Coastal is No. 63 on the south regional university list, certainly not pleasing to the Elon and Davidson club.
There are many choices to be made here. It’s obvious that William and Mary and UNCW would fit for the SoCon, but are they willing to leave the CAA? Is the lure of Coastal Carolina’s strong athletic program big enough to overlook their struggling academics?
What I Want to See
If Matt Krause ran the Southern Conference, the following would happen: as soon as James Madison gets invited to the Sun Belt, the SoCon would add UNCW and William and Mary for all sports, and Richmond for football only.
With the CAA likely dead, a prodigal son situation would occur with College of Charleston. Yes, they can have their old spot back. The SoCon already misses them. Davidson left in 1991 and came back in 1992, so there is a precedent for this.
To simply things: W&M replaces Appalachian State, UNCW/Richmond replaces Richmond, and C of C replaces…C of C.
I believe that these moves would create a solid academic and athletic conference at the FCS level for years to come. The SoCon would be in most of the South’s mid-size media markets (Richmond, Va.; Tidewater, Va.; Triangle, N.C.; Triad, N.C.; Charleston, S.C., and so on), and be compact enough to maintain bus travel.
What I Think Will Actually Happen
Alright, I don’t run the Southern Conference. But I do cover it. So here’s what I think will happen: the SoCon will add Mercer, Coastal Carolina, and some basketball school out of left field- Belmont University in Nashville? The conference would probably compromise at two private schools and one (low level) public school. These schools bring basketball and geography, and while football would take a slight hit, which seems like a win in the current state of the FCS.
Only time will tell, though we will probably know what the 2014 SoCon will look like by the start of the new academic year.