By Michael Hermanson

While the talking heads will debate offense vs. defense, McCarthy vs. Tomlin, Capers vs. LeBeau, Rodgers vs. Roethlisberger, etc. the real interesting stuff lies in the prop bets for the Super Bowl. A proposition bet simply means a bet that occurs within the game, but the Super Bowl goes all out with these. The Las Vegas Hilton releases hundreds of prop bets ever Super Bowl week. Gambling regulations in Vegas only allow for things contested on the field to be wagered on, so for the purposes of this column, I’m going to imagine that offshore sports books exist that have even more ridiculous wagers. I’m going to pretend that I have $100 to wager, and am looking to make money, not just bet on ridiculous things.

Bet #1: $20 Heath Miller OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

The Packers haven’t been great against tight ends this year. In the Packers six losses this year, they have given up a TD to a TE in 4 of those 6 games. The other two, against Detroit and Washington, featured just one touchdown scored. Heath Miller is one of Big Ben’s favorite targets and this seems like easy money.

Bet #2: $5 John Kuhn WILL score a touchdown (+245)

With the Packers’ running struggles this year, it seems the Red Zone will be difficult for them. It will be only more difficult facing the Steelers, the best Red Zone defense in the league. It seems almost certain that Kuhn or Rodgers will have to pound it in on 4th and goal or 3rd and goal. With +245, I like Kuhn’s chances.

Bet #3: BJ Raji will die of a heart attack during the game (+30000)

Those arteries need a break.

Actual Bet #3: $5 John Kuhn OVER 7.5 rushing yards (+155)

He has yet to eclipse this number in the playoffs (1, 5, and 2 yards respectively) and yes, the Steelers do have the best rush defense in the league. So why am I staking 5% of my bankroll on John Kuhn going over? Because rooting against this happening would be miserable, the odds are pretty good, and I think Kuhn could see more attempts than in previous playoff games (3, 2, and 1 rushes respectively). I could bank $20 of profit on John Kuhn.

Bet #4: $5 Jordy Nelson WILL score a TD (+270)

You can be sure that Dick LeBeau will be gearing up his defense to stop the pass against the pass-first Packers. With the NFL’s #1 rush defense against a mediocre rushing team, most of the attack will be against Driver, Jennings and Nelson. Nelson falls last on that list of who to guard. Could he sneak in a touchdown? Definitely, and these are good odds.

Bet #5: $5 Donald Driver to win MVP (+2900)

The odds on this are too good to pass up. If the Packers win the game, the MVP will be one of the following: Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Clay Matthews, or Tramon Williams. If the Steelers focus more on Jennings than Driver, I could see Driver possibly going for 9 receptions, 170 yards and 2 touchdowns. Does that make him MVP? Possibly, but betting $5 to win $145 isn’t bad.

Bet #6: $10 Longest Gross Punt of Super Bowl +12.5 OVER Dustin Johnson 4th Round Score at Waste Management Phoenix Open -12.5 (Even)

Dustin Johnson will shoot in between 65 and 73 in his final round (should he play, if he doesn’t bet is null). That means that the longest gross punt (not including return) needs to be in between 52.5 and 60.5. The middle of that range (56.5) has been exceeded by Tim Masthay of the Packers five out of 18 games. For the Steelers’ Jeremy Kapinos, he has hit that 1 out of 7 times. Since only one of them needs to do it, that puts the odds at 42%, not great. But this game is indoors basically, in perfect conditions. Asking Johnson to shoot 69 isn’t asking much, so a 56.5 yard gross punt shouldn’t be too much to ask either.

Bet #7: $5 Total Points 66-70 (+3000); $5 Total Points 71-75 (+6000); $5 Total Points 76-80 (+7500)

This is basically a bet on a high scoring game. In order to hit 66 points, a realistic outcome would be 35-31, all the way up to 45-35. All these odds are great and if Rodgers and Roethlisberger turn this into a passing contest, points could hit the board quickly.

This leaves me $35 left to play with. 2 out of my 7 bets so far are on things I think will happen, not just good value, so I’ll devote the remaining $35 to making sure I make some money. But, if I were an irresponsible gambler (if I were a gambler at all, if gambling were legal), I might bet these:

Christina Aguilera OVER 1:54 National Anthem (-225) and OVER 6 seconds on “BRAVE” (-140)

Last year I bet Carrie Underwood to go over 1:52 thinking after doing some research showing she usually went over on National Anthems. I was wrong, but Christina Aguilera is a whole new ballgame. After doing YouTube research, Aguilera routinely goes over this time limit in her singing of the Star Spangled Banner. Better than that, there is a video of her holding “Brave” for 13 seconds! 13 seconds! It seems to be a lock that she will go over 6 seconds on brave, that I may move it into my actual bets. But I digress.

Time on Game Clock Under 0:45 when Gatorade is dumped on winning Coach (-145)

The play clock is 40 seconds, so if this game is not close, the coach will run onto the field at below 45 seconds. Normally, it seems to me that coaches are dumped right before they start running. Say the Steelers have it locked up with two more kneel downs. They most likely will dump the coach within 10 seconds of the final knee, either before or after. The only way they dump him with more than this on the clock is in the event of a complete blowout where they might not even dump at all (bad taste).

No punt will hit the scoreboard during the game (-2500)

Betting $25 just to win $1 are awful odds, but this seems like one of the biggest locks in gambling history. If a punt were to hit the scoreboard DURING the game that would be one of the biggest sports mishaps of all time. There is no way the NFL would let that happen. I refuse to believe it. Put everything down on this one. I will neither confirm nor deny that all my life savings are on this bet.

Ben Roethlisberger Will Sexually Assault Fergie at the Halftime Show (+75000)

You never know.

So with $35 left, I’ve had a change of heart, and will bet one of my ridiculous bets.

Bet #8: $10 Christina Aguilera OVER 1:54 National Anthem (-225)

The “Brave” bet seems too much of a gimme. The NFL might tell her to tone it down; however, they can’t stop her from showing off a little. I’m putting a lot down on this one. Let’s just hope it’s not a too good to be true bet.

Bet #9: $10 Clay Matthews OVER 0.5 sacks (-210)

The Steelers offensive linemen are dropping like naughty children in Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory. Matthews is the Packers’ go-to-guy for big time sacks. Roethlisberger is probably the second hardest QB to sack (Manning), but it may not be a fair fight.

Bet #10: $5 Longest Field Goal made UNDER 43.5 yards (+103)

Sean Suisham was possibly the worst kicker in the league with the Cowboys. He was then released and picked up by the Steelers, where he has been performing well. I think the ghosts will haunt him in Dallas. Since this game should be close, both coaches will probably risk going for it on 4th down rather than settling for a long field goal, which makes this even less likely. Is it a gimme? No, but the odds are better than they should be.

Bet #11: $10 Both Teams Will Have the Lead in 2nd Half (+165)

I’m anticipating a close game, and a second half lead change seems entirely plausible, if not probable. Getting +165 is a nice bonus.

That eats up all my theoretical $100. For the real stuff, not much explanation. You can watch ESPN and hear everything I’m going to say. At 145-118-3 on the season (55%), here is my last pick of a terrific year in football.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) over Green Bay Packers

My one concern with this pick is that the O-line for the Steelers is literally dying off. A new player is going down every week with Maurkice Pouncey being the latest victim. However, they Steelers keep winning with everything working against them. I value Big Ben’s experience over Aaron Rodgers, and I still can’t shake how close the Packers came to blowing both the Eagles and Bears games. If they sit on a lead like that Sunday, they are not going to win. Just ask Kurt Warner.