With a two-week string of 11-17, I’ve decided to re-evaluate my principles of picking teams. Here are my rankings, from worst to best, of every team in the league. I based these rankings off of how good I think these teams are at this point, not records.
The Race for Mark Ingram Division
32. Buffalo Bills
The Bills looked so promising in the first half last week, going up on the Jags who had just beat the Colts. However, it all came crashing down on them, and they sit at 0-5 with just the Panthers and Niners. But why are the Bills 0-5? Ways you know you’re 0-5:
- Your quarterback didn’t receive any Division 1-A scholarship offers and went to Harvard.
- Your head coach was out of football in 2009, and at one point in his career coached the Birmingham Fire
- Your head coach coached the Birmingham Fire! A team in the World League of American Football. This soon became NFL Europa, which ceased to exist in 2007.
- Your running back went to Coe College.
- In your quarterback’s best game of his career (vs. Jacksonville) he was 2 of 8 converting third downs.
31. Carolina Panthers
After Carolina went to New Orleans and lost by just 2, it looked like Jimmy Clausen might be settling in, and the Panthers could be a 6-10 team. Then, we learned that New Orleans sucks, and got beat by Arizona. Arizona, with 3 wins, is still ranked last by the Football Outsiders. When Todd Collins plays one of the worst games of all time (6 completions, 4 interceptions on 16 attempts with 2 sacks), the Panthers still were trounced by the Bears.
The NFC West
30. Arizona Cardinals
I feel bad putting the Cardinals this low on the list mostly because they are currently leading the NFC West. However, two of their three wins come over Saint Louis by 4, and Oakland by 1. Their point differential is -50: only the Bills, Panthers, and 49ers have worse. When Kurt Warner said that Max Hall reminded him of a younger version of himself: that may have been the biggest overstatement in the history of the Cardinals organization. Even if the Cardinals end up winning this division at 7-9, they will still be one of the worst teams in my book.
29. San Francisco 49ers
I think the time has come where we have to stop looking at he Niners as everyone’s preseason sleeper pick and start looking at them as one of the only 3 winless teams in the league. While you would think going winless in the worst division in sports might be impossible, the 49ers are off to a good start. Alex Smith has flashes of brilliance and at times the 49ers look like an 8-8 team. They are clearly the most talented team in this division, but for some reason they haven’t been able to put it together. San Fran is at Green Bay week 13, and that is the only team currently over .500 they will play all year. If they lose to Oakland this week, I’m ready to rule them out, but I still kind of like them to win this division.
28. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have one of the few true home-field advantages in the NFL. Qwest field is known to be louder than any stadium in the NFL, and the Seahawks are using it to their advantage. With wins over San Diego and San Francisco at home, the Seahawks were looking like the favorites in the West, then the Rams held them to 3 points. The Rams won 1 game last year! Seattle has to show me they can win a road game before I pick them this year.
27. St. Louis Rams
The Rams have the only good win out of this division against the Redskins. Sam Bradford looks like he could be the next elite quarterback in the league, Steven Jackson looks good, and the defense has actually been able to stop some teams. Much like all these other teams that are ranked this low, it’s hard to have confidence in the Rams on the road, but to get to the playoffs, they just have to beat other teams in the division.
The Occasional Cover/Streaky Division
26. Detroit Lions
Detroit against the spread this year: 4-1. That’s tied with the Jets for the best ATS record in the league. The reason Detroit’s been able to keep game’s so close is that they’re good at scoring garbage points in the 4th quarter. They’re not good enough yet to contend for a division, or even go .500, but right now their offense is coming around and they are seriously undervalued. I wonder who I like +10 in New York this week….
25. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 3-2 against the spread this year, and they’ve been able to hang in games this year, notably against the Ravens and Bengals. Three of their four losses have come by a touchdown or less, and despite have Jake Delhomme play quarterback, they’ve somehow been able to stay close with teams this year. That being said, against the Pittsburgh Man-Eating Zombie-Killing Steelers, the Browns have decided to start Colt McCoy. Colt McCoy will make his first NFL start against the most ferocious defense in the league. Sportsbook has the odds at +180 that McCoy finishes the game, and -300 that he survives the game. While they have no other options (Seneca Wallace is injured and Jake Delhomme is awful), McCoy will get to see the difference between the NFL and Texas very quickly this week. I think Mike Wilbon said it best when he said, “there better be a priest on hand, ready to read him his last rites”.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville beat Denver, then lost by 25 in consecutive weeks, then won 2 in a row. David Garrard’s fantasy numbers are: 19, 2, 5, 15, 24. Maurice Jones-Drew is a vanishing act every so often, and their defense is one of the 5 worst in the league. All that makes for an up and down team. Unfortunately, that makes handicapping them almost impossible. Here’s my take: any decent defense will be able to stop MoJo and make David Garrard win a game. Indianapolis, Buffalo, Denver. Three of the worst defenses in the league.
23. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders have been up and down this year too: they almost won at Houston, then they beat San Diego. Throw in two games earlier in the year decided by 1 point and 4 points, a 25 point blowout, and you’ve got a streaky team. The Bruce Gradkowski/Jason Campbell saga seems like it will last the whole year, but even if they were put into a sack and forced to play QB as part of a 3-legged race, they would still be better than JaMarcus Russell. Oakland is a scary team because they’re almost always going to be a slight underdog, but you never know when they can pull an upset.
The Johnny Drama/Carson Palmer Division
Has-beens. Because of past successes, we imagine these teams better than they actually are. For the same reason we think Detroit and Saint Louis are no good, we think Minnesota and Cincinnati are.
22. Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer is a bad quarterback. Carson Palmer is a bad quarterback. Continue to repeat that until it is ingrained into your mind. Palmer was good in 2004 at USC, he was. However, in 2010, he is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Cincy is 2-3 this year, which is disappointing start after a playoff season last year. The defense is so good that they stay in games, but Palmer is just bad. The Arizona Cardinals are proving why the quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and without a good one, you can’t be competitive. Cincy’s defense isn’t to the point where they can carry Palmer, like the Steelers carried Batch/Dixon/Leftwich, and the Bears carried Orton/Grossman a few years ago.
21. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 1-3, and every week Around the Horn, PTI, Cold Pizza (wait, it’s not called Cold Pizza anymore?), or some other version of ESPN employees yelling at each other seems to be debating who needs a win more, the Cowboys or Vikings. It makes me mad that the Vikings are being compared to the Cowboys because I think the Cowboys are a good team. The Vikings, on the other hand, look like they’re coming off of a year where everything went their way. Favre isn’t who he was last year, but rather is playing like an average quarterback. The defense is stopping everyone like it did a year ago. The Vikings have a tough schedule to (3 games left against currently sub .500 teams), and while they may be a lot better than the Bengals, they don’t have a shot at making the playoffs.
Tough to Tell Division
Easily the largest division, because there are so many teams we don’t have a clue about. Therefore, I’m breaking it into two divisions: teams with a good shot at the playoffs and teams that are long shots. First, longshots:
Tough to Tell West
20. Denver Broncos
On one hand, Orton looks like he’s going to set the all-time passing record. On the other hand, they have no running game, and no defense. The top 3 teams on this list have great defenses AND good running games. The fact that Denver has neither makes me wonder if they can make the playoffs. Also, Orton doesn’t have his ’05 Bears neckbeard mojo.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is one of the most interesting teams to me: Josh Freeman seems like he’s another quarterback who played at some random college, got picked in the 6th round, and nobody’s ever heard of him. Just like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Seneca Wallace, Bruce Gradkowski, Jason Campbell, and Shaun Hill. We all know the names, but could we pick them out of a lineup? The difference with Freeman is that he’s just 22 years old. He throws the ball well, is agile in the pocket, and looks like he could be a stud in the future. We expect Tampa to be bad because they went 3-13 last year. But they’re only one year removed from back-to-back winning season, and remember they won the Super Bowl in 2002. We might be seeing a new Tampa team.
18. Philadelphia Eagles
With Mike Vick, they looked like they could claim the NFC East. However, that was in games against the Lions and Jaguars. Philly then lost to the Redskins and beat the winless 49ers by just 3. This week will be a good test with the NFC’s top team Atlanta coming to visit.
17. Tennessee Titans
Much like the Jaguars, the Titans have been very off and on this year: win, loss, win, loss, win. The Titans have quality wins @ NYG and @ Dallas. However, with Jacksonville and Indianapolis in their division, I don’t think Tennessee will be able to make the playoffs this year.
Tough to Tell East
16. Washington Redskins
After beating Green Bay and Philadelphia, yet losing to the Rams, the Redskins are tough to read. Green Bay had so many penalties in the loss, and seems like they are giving away games (Bears, Skins). Ryan Torain is emerging as a consistent running back, and Donovan McNabb has yet to be tested by a good defense (Dallas, Houston, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Green Bay). If the Giants continue to play this well on defense, the Redskins would have a tough time playing them, but for now, they’re 2-0 against the division, and look like they could win the NFC East.
15. New York Giants
I put the Giants ahead of the Redskins not because of their win against the Bears (the Bears just aren’t that good), but because of their thrashing of the Texans. After what we saw the Texans do to the Colts, and in the 4th quarter against the Redskins, we know they can move the ball pretty well. While Andre Johnson is nursing an injury, the Giants still limited the Texans to just 10 points. However, will the Giants continue playing like they are, or more like their Sunday Night loss in the Manning Bowl.
14. New Orleans Saints
The Saints haven’t played a good game this year, and are the only winless team against the spread this year. While at 3-2, they still have a great shot at making the playoffs, unless something drastic changes, they won’t be repeating as champs.
13. San Diego Chargers
I put the Chargers this high because: 1) every year they seem to start out 2-3, and then win the division. 2) They have some very fluky losses with odd special teams plays. 3) Their division still isn’t very strong. Football Outsiders ranks the Chargers 3rd in both defense and offense, the best-combined rating out of any team in the league. However, their special teams ranking is 32, by a mile. Kansas City returned a punt for a TD week 1, and then won by 7. Against Seattle, Leon Washington took 2 kicks back to the house, winning by 7. In their most recent loss to Oakland, the Raiders took back a blocked punt for a touchdown, and a fumble for a TD (not to mention a safety). San Diego lost by 8. Without all these ridiculous plays working against them, the Chargers should be 4-1, and could easily be 5-0. Unless someone cursed them, I don’t think this luck can continue, and they should turn it around.
12. Chicago Bears
This year’s Bears remind me a lot of the 2005 Bears. In 2005, the Bears found their starter Rex Grossman injured, and played sub Kyle Orton. Orton then took the Bears to the playoffs where they lost to the Panthers. During this whole season, Orton seemingly never completed a pass of more than 5 yards. He handed to Thomas Jones, and the defense scored the other points. While this year’s defense isn’t as strong as that year’s, I still think the Bears can make the playoffs with Jay Cutler/Caleb Hanie/Todd Collins behind center. At 4-1, they’re off to a good start, and even though they have to play the AFC East, I still think they can squeak out 9-7, which will be good enough for a wild card in the NFC.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
How many times did we hear, “the Chiefs are the only undefeated team in the league?” or “well don’t look now Boomer, but the unheralded CHIEFS! are the only team left without a loss”. Well, after losing to Indy, we don’t have to hear any of that anymore. The only reason KC ranks this high is because of their schedule: KC has 3 games remaining against teams currently above .500. If they can split with the Chargers, they could very well win this division.
10. Dallas Cowboys
At 1-3, the Cowboys are under a lot of scrutiny, especially because many picked them to go to the Super Bowl in their home stadium. All 3 of their losses come by a touchdown or less, and they have a quality win at Houston. When chucking to Miles Austin, Tony Romo and the Cowboys look unstoppable. They’re passing more than any team in the league (66% of their plays), and they keep trying to incorporate the running game. I think they need to start embracing the pass because that’s the way they’ve been scoring. The Cowboys are only 1 game back in the loss column in the division, and are by no means out of the NFC East race.
9. Houston Texans
With Andre Johnson hurt the past couple weeks I’m going to cut them some slack on losing to the Giants by such a margin. Houston will need to improve their miserable pass defense if they want to contend in the division though.
8. Miami Dolphins
With close wins over Buffalo and Minnesota, and losses to division rivals Patriots and Jets, the Dolphins may seem high at just 2-2. However, their 2 losses came at home, and 2 wins on the road. I think they don’t play any better at home, yet can go beat some quality teams on the road. With @ GB this week, it will be interesting to see how the Dolphins fare. However, they played the Jets tough, and looked like they should’ve won that game. I’m not counting the Dolphins out of a wild card spot yet, but with New England and Jets playing the way they are, a division win will be tough.
Early Playoff Favorites Division
7. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ defense is struggling. Every year, the Colts seem to get over injuries and old players, and anything else, and still go 13-3. However, this may be the year that it bites them. Peyton Manning is passing so often he too is on pace to break the single season passing record. They have no defense, and can never build a significant lead. Bob Sanders got injured, then his replacement got injured. Jeff Saturday is playing hurt, Gary Brackett and Kavell Conner are injured at linebacker too. Once they get all the pieces together, they’re no doubt lethal, but playing the way they are, I don’t think they’ll be able to win the AFC. That said, they’re still a heavy favorite to win the division.
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have given teams first downs off penalties 15 times on 3rd down alone this year! That’s second in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers looks like Peyton Manning at times, yet these penalties have been destroying the Packers. Not only that, but the Packers have been playing terribly in the 4th quarter. So far this season, the Packers have been outscored 42-14 in the 4th quarter (and overtime). That compares to 105-47 in the other 3 quarters. The Packers at times look like the NFC favorites, but they are not going to the Super Bowl with their penalty problem. Even with it, they’re still probably a lock for the playoffs, and a virtual lock for the division (I know, the Bears are leading, but are you really going to pick the Bears?)
5. New England Patriots
After barely beating the Bills, the Patriots looked like they were going to be a 9-7 team, fall short of the playoffs due to their awful defense. Despite having no prominent running backs, and losing Randy Moss, the Pats still seem to have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. BenJarvus Green-Ellis actually doesn’t look that bad, and with Welker and Brady the passing game is always going to be good. While right now they look a little worse than the Jets, they could still easily win the division.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Who would’ve thought the Falcons would be the top team in the NFC? After missing the playoffs last year, the Falcons are back with a solid defense (7th by Football Outsiders), a solid quarterback (Ryan), a solid running back (Turner), and a solid wide receiver (White). With a statement game win against New Orleans, and a nice comeback against the Niners, the Falcons look like they know how to win. Matt Ryan will need to be more productive for the Falcons to continue this tear, but right now they look like NFC favorites.
The Cream of the Crop Division
3. New York Jets
All of the top 3 teams are in the AFC, and it’s really not that disputable. An early Super Bowl line had AFC -1.5, which I pounced on, and it is already up to AFC -3. As for the Jets, their only loss comes to the Ravens, who have made every team this year look like idiots on offense. With Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie in the secondary, it is almost impossible to score through the air against the Jets. The reason I rank them 3rd among the top 3 is I’m not entirely confident in Mark Sanchez. Last year’s playoff performance seems to be the way Sanchez has started off the year, playing remarkably well so far (8 TD, 0 INT). However, I wonder if last year’s 12 TD/20 INT play will resurface. Can LT continue to play well after disappearing the last 3 years? Will Shonn Greene be productive if he does. While I have a lot of questions about the Jets, their play has shown they belong in this category. 2. Baltimore Ravens 1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens and Steelers have been very impressive this year. I think Joe Flacco is emerging into a QB who can win a Super Bowl; he’s not at the level of a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, or even Ben Roethlisberger, but he can win. Both have great defenses and running games, but the reason I put Pittsburgh ahead is because of Ben Roethlisberger. If the Steelers can go 3-1 against 4 winning teams, including an almost-win against Baltimore without a great QB, how good will they be with him? Their defense looks scary good right now, and they have to be definitive favorites to win the Super Bowl. As for my Week 6 picks (home team in CAPS)….
Chargers (-8.5) over RAMS TEXANS (-4.5) over Chiefs Ravens (+1.5) over PATRIOTS Saints (-4.5) over BUCS Falcons (+3) over EAGLES Lions (+10) over GIANTS STEELERS (-13.5) over Browns BEARS (-6.5) over Seahawks Jets (-3) over BRONCOS Raiders (+6.5) over 49ERS Cowboys (+1.5) over VIKINGS Colts (-3) over REDSKINS Titans (-3) over JAGUARS GREEN BAY vs. Miami is a scratch due to Aaron Rodgers’ questionable status. Either way, I’m taking Miami with the points.