Conor O'Neill

Somebody will do it. Every year, draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. tells us exactly which players each team will take. It makes for a fascinating read. But that's all it should be taken as. Each year, it only takes one team to throw a wrench in ESPN's plans for what should happen.

It happened last year when the Chiefs took Tyson Jackson third overall, and the Raiders took Darrius Heyward-Bey seventh overall. Jackson had an Ok season, but another defensive end selected in the first round, Brian Orakpo, was a pro-bowler. And Heyward-Bey did relatively nothing.

So you can go to ESPN if you want to read about what should/won't happen in the draft. Or you can read below, where I take the chances that Kiper won't take (maybe because he's paid a fair amount of money and well, I'm not).

1. St. Louis Rams- Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma. This is a no-brainer. The Rams gave up on Marc Bulger, and find themselves with A.J. Feeley as the best QB on their roster. Bradford is a player to build a franchise around, and don't forget that he'll have an outstanding RB to work with in Steven Jackson.

2. Detroit Lions- Gerald McCoy, DT Texas. The Lions got their franchise QB last year in Matt Stafford. Now it's time to address their need for a pass rush. While most people see Ndamukong Suh going in this spot, I think differently. While Suh is disruptive in the backfield, he is not a traditional 3-point stance DT. McCoy was a team captain at Texas and is more of a traditional DT. He will have the better career over Suh, and the Lions should realize it.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Eric Berry, S Tennessee. You thought Suh would go here then, if not to Detroit? Wrong. The Bucs love ball-hawking DB's, and Berry is the best ball-hawking safety since Sean Taylor was drafted fifth overall in 2004. He'll fit great in the Bucs' system, and will have a mentor in Rhonde Barber.

4. San Francisco 49ers- Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame. This pick belongs to the Washington Redskins, but I see the 49ers jumping ahead to select Clausen. This is team that thinks it can win their division, but to unseat the Cardinals, the 49ers need more than Alex Smith at QB. Insert Clausen, who was put through fire for three years in South Bend, and the 49ers have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC West.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska. Suh falls, but not out of the top five. He is a great talent, and would form a dynamic three man rush along with Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson for the Chiefs. This team is still a few years away from competing for the playoffs, but as the 2007 Giants showed us, championships can be won with great pass rushes.

6. Seattle Seahawks- C.J. Spiller, RB Clemson. Explosiveness comes to an offense that has been lackluster and dormant for three years. Spiller can provide a spark for Matt Hasselbeck, and will give new coach Pete Carroll a fun toy to work with and draw plays for. And does anyone remember how effective Reggie Bush was with Carroll? Well Pete, here's the ACC version of Bush. Enjoy.

7. Cleveland Browns- Earl Thomas, S Texas. Good luck Mike Holmgren. Inheriting a team that has just two of its past 11 first-round picks on the active roster is a daunting task. Holmgren wanted a project, and to prove himself in the Bill Parcells mold. With Thomas, Holmgren will bring a playmaker to a defense that intercepted just 10 passes last season.

8. Oakland Raiders- Bruce Campbell, OT Maryland. And Al Davis does it again. Even with Russell Okung, Trent Williams and Brian Bulaga on the board, Davis is a stubborn old man and loves Campbell's combine numbers. Not that paying too much attention to combine performance has hurt the Raiders in the past (JaMarcus Russell, Heyward-Bey, Michael Huff). This is actually an easy pick to guess, because we know Davis won't make a smart pick.

9. Buffalo Bills- Russell Okung, OT Oklahoma St. The Raiders' gaffe is new head coach Chan Gailey's gift. Okung is the most talented offensive lineman in the draft, and will be able to start for the Bills at LT from Day 1. This is another team that needs much more than just one player, but taking a safe pick with Okung will mean that the Bills have a franchise LT, something becoming more uncommon in the NFL.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars- Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma St. Two Cowboys to fill out the top 10, I swear I didn't plan it that way. I could the Jags trading out of this pick to acquire more picks, and I think this will be the answer to the riddle of 'Who gets Tim Tebow?' But for now, I see them staying put and selecting Bryant. Off-the-field issues aside, Bryant is a great playmaker at receiver and would be a valuable asset for David Garrard. After all, their top receiving option last year was Mike Sims-Walker, with 63 catches. Improvement is needed in order for this team to compete with the Colts, Texans and Titans.

There's how I think the first 10 picks will play out. Sure, there's a little bias in there (while I want the Skins to trade down, I don't see it happening). But overall, my scenario is as likely to come to fruition as Kiper's.