Colleges and universities across the country are bracing for the impact of a ripple effect 18 years in the making — the demographic cliff.
Triggered at the start of the Great Recession in 2007, the economic downturn Americans experienced caused a drop in birth rates, which never recovered. Now higher education is feeling the impact.
With fewer babies born after 2007, there are now less 18 year olds going to college. According to a 2024 report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the number of 18-year-old high school graduates will peak somewhere between 3.8 and 3.9 million in 2025 and will be followed by a 15-year decline. Nationwide, the report projected a decrease to below 3.4 million graduates by 2041, 13% lower than 2025.
But the cliff isn’t as steep as its name would suggest. It’s also not equal across the U.S. Most southern states, including North Carolina, are predicted to experience an increase in high school graduates of about 14%.
As North Carolina’s rate of high school graduates increases, Elon University Vice President for Enrollment Greg Zaiser wrote in an email to Elon News Network that the university is noticing growth in enrollment of students from southern states. Zaiser wrote that Elon is specifically seeing growth from North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida, where the number of students graduating from high school is rising.
According to Zaiser, Elon has been researching ways to prepare for and combat the demographic cliff for a while and commissioned a market analysis study to pinpoint locations where the university should build a larger presence.
“While the number of students coming from these regional markets will take years to grow, we are seeing increased interest in the form of applications from greater numbers of students from each of these areas,” Zaiser wrote.
Zaiser also wrote that Elon’s Office of Admissions is looking to hire another admissions counselor based in Texas to grow Elon’s presence in the state.
Elon’s class of 2029 enrollment saw an 11.6% decrease compared to last year’s freshman class. There are a total of 1,517 freshmen for the 2025-26 academic year. Elon’s Office of Admissions was expecting this drop in enrollment, according to Zaiser.
However, instead of changing requirements and standards to enroll more students into Elon’s class of 2029, Zaiser wrote that Elon was “strategic in enrolling a smaller class this year by maintaining the most important things.”
“We could have spent more on scholarships to recruit more students. But the most important thing was to make sure we are delivering on the promise of the exceptional education Elon offers to current and enrolling students,” Zaiser wrote. “Many schools are using most of their tuition revenue for scholarships just to attract students. Elon is using tuition to fund educational experiences and opportunities.”
Elon University President Connie Book expanded on Zaiser’s point in a recent interview with Elon News Network, explaining that the university decided to admit fewer students instead of changing its standards for admission into the university.
“We made the decision just to hold and so we’re bringing in a really qualified, great class, a very Elon-like class and we don’t think the competition is going to change,” Book said in a previous interview with Elon News Network on Aug. 19.
While the number of new undergraduate students may be lower, Book highlighted a 25% growth in graduate student enrollment for fall 2025.
As colleges and universities across the nation continue to combat the demographic cliff, Zaiser wrote that Elon is implementing new programs to draw in students that may not have previously looked in the university’s direction. He pointed to growth in Elon’s nursing program, accelerated programs in the Love School of Business, Elon Law, the School of Health Sciences, and new opportunities for transfer students.
“I also believe Neuroscience and Digital Content Management, both new majors this year, will be very helpful in attracting new students,” Zaiser wrote.
The impacts of lower birth rates in the years following the Great Recession will span the next few decades; however, Book said young adults should still value a college education and the doors it can unlock.
“The reality is — I always say — if you can excel, go to college,” Book said in a previous interview with Elon News Network. “Because the data is clear. It will benefit you and your family’s future for the rest of your life.”