I find that every year the brackets become harder and harder to predict. I find this year to be particularly difficult because many of the teams I like have been drawn against each other while the teams I don’t like seem to have easier paths to Dallas.
The first of the teams I don’t like is Kansas. Obviously, Kansas will miss Joel Embiid, but the Jayhawks should cruise through the opening weekend of the tournament. I’ve picked New Mexico to take on Kansas in the round of 32, but the Lobos don’t have a quality win that gives me any belief they can pull off the upset. New Mexico lost to Kansas by 17 points already this year on a neutral court, and the Lobos have also lost to fellow tournament teams UMass, New Mexico State and San Diego State. Kansas should make it to the regional finals after beating Syracuse, who is in a similar situation.
Syracuse’s best basketball is behind it but I think the Orange can squeak by Western Michigan and Ohio State. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone will do enough to disrupt a poor shooting Buckeyes team, but will lose to Kansas in the elite 8. Top-seeded Florida will have difficult matchups at the top of the bracket, but Pittsburgh and UCLA are just too inconsistent to have an extended March run. There’s something to be said about Florida’s long winning streak and guard play is always important in March. Scottie Wilbekin has been phenomenal for the Gators thus far and will lead them to another Final Four.
In the East, I like Michigan State to advance to the Final Four, defeating Iowa State in the regional final. St. Joseph’s and Harvard may turn some heads in the early rounds with a couple upsets, but the heavyweights of this region should prevail. Harvard is extremely talented and it’s a shame they will have to play a red hot Michigan State team in the third round, while St. Joseph’s will look to avenge an early season loss to Big Five rival Villanova in the round of 32. On the bottom of the bracket, Iowa State can flat out score. The Cyclones offense is the closest thing to a pro-style system, but Michigan State is finally healthy, and I believe its strong performance in the Big Ten tournament is just a fraction of what they’re capable of. Gary Harris and Keith Appling give the Spartans one of the best backcourts in the country and that’s why they’re my pick to not only make it out of the east, win the national championship.
The Midwest is the toughest bracket, by far. Wichita State got its No. 1 seed, but it came at a price. I like Kentucky to beat struggling Kansas State, and then go on to beat the Shockers. Everyone is quick to say Wichita State hasn’t beaten anyone good this year, but it goes further than that. Wichita State doesn’t know what it’s like to play tough opposition game after game, and they will pay the price for it early in the tournament. Just look at Gonzaga last year when the Bulldogs lost to Wichita State. Louisville at a No. 4 seed is a crime, but I still see the Cardinals making it to Dallas after a rematch of last year’s championship game against Michigan.
In the West, I don’t like any of the teams, but I do like Marcus Smart enough to think he can carry the Cowboys to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Arizona. If the Wildcats couldn’t handle Kyle Anderson and UCLA in the Pac-12 title game, I don’t see them being able to stop Smart. Wisconsin is another top team, and I think they have good enough matchups to make it all the way to the Final Four. There’s nothing in particular I like about any of these teams, but somebody has to go to Dallas.
Fast forward to April, I think Michigan State will be peaking at the right time and knock off top seed Florida. Russ Smith will lead Louisville over Wisconsin. And like I said before, Michigan State will edge out Louisville in a battle of guards.
More Pendulum brackets
Sports Editor Tommy HamzikAssistant Sports Editor Matt Krause
We at The Pendulum want to hear your take on the NCAA Tournament! Please tweet us your predictions and brackets at @pendulumsports.