With four weeks left in the NFL season, 29 of the 32 teams are still mathematically alive. While many need a miracle to make the playoffs, one team has already clinched their spot: the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks are in the driver’s seat in the NFC at 11-1, two games ahead of the NFC South leaders, the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers (both teams at 9-3). They also own the tiebreaker over each, after beating the Panthers in Week 1, 12-7, and dominating the Saints on Monday night, 34-7.
With the Saints and Panthers facing each other in Weeks 14 and 16, the Seahawks seem to have the No. 1 seed all but locked up. What also helps Seattle is they have their final two games of the season at home, where it hasn’t lost during the Russell Wilson era.
The only way that they could fall out of the No. 1 seed, it appears, would be to lose the division. The San Francisco 49ers are three games back of the Seahawks at 8-4, and would need a miracle to overcome the deficit. However, they have a chance to help their cause on Sunday, as they host Seattle at Candlestick Park (4:25 p.m. EST on FOX).
In their first matchup in Seattle in Week 2 (Sept. 15), the Seahawks dominated San Francisco, winning 29-3 on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks made a statement that week to the rest of the NFL: playing and winning in Seattle is close to impossible if the Seahawks bring their A-game.
But, in comparison to its home dominance, Seattle has struggled on the road. They lost their only game of the season in Indianapolis (34-28 in Week 5), and had close calls in Carolina (12-7 in Week 1), Houston (23-20 OT win in Week 4), and especially St. Louis, where the Rams failed to convert a 4th-and-goal play from the 1-yard line as time expired. While this Seahawk team looks immortal at home, they look beatable on the road.
Enter San Francisco. The 49ers have had their struggles this season, but the majority of them are due to a lack of offensive weapons. The 49ers did not get Mario Manningham until Week 10, and just got Michael Crabtree back last week. Vernon Davis has also missed parts of games or whole games that the 49ers (DNP in Week 3 loss to Colts, left in the first half in Week 10 loss to Panthers). The only receiver who has been healthy all season is 33-year-old Anquan Boldin, who has been consistently getting double-teamed. To put it simply, Colin Kaepernick simply hasn’t had enough reliable options to throw to, and the 49ers have been predictable.
However, with Crabtree finally back last week, the 49ers showed flashes of what could be an unstoppable offense. Consider this possible 49ers skill position lineup:
Michael Crabtree at Wide Receiver No. 1
Anquan Boldin at Wide Receiver No. 2
Mario Manningham at Wide Receiver No. 3 (slot receiver)
Vernon Davis at Tight End
Either Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter or LaMichael James at Running Back.
So, as a defense, you decide to sit back in coverage on these players, right? Well, don’t forget Colin Kaepernick’s explosive run capability, which he displays best when the defense is not prepared for it.
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The one strength the 49ers have had all year was their offensive line, considered one of the best in the league. But, in the past two weeks, two Pro Bowlers have suffered sprained MCLs, left tackle Joe Staley and left guard Mike Iupati. Staley was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice, which is a sign he may be able to play. Meanwhile, Iupati did not practice Thursday, making it very unlikely he will suit up on Sunday.
The Seahawks, however, are facing quite a few injury and depth issues of their own. Cornerbacks Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner are facing suspensions for violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Thurmond accepted his four-game suspension, which started last week. Browner (also battling a groin injury) is appealing his suspension, which would be one-year long due to the second offense of the substance abuse policy. Even as Browner may not get suspended, he is definitely out for Sunday’s game against the 49ers.
Another key player for Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” defense did not participate in practice Thursday. Defensive end Bruce Irvin is fighting a thigh injury, and while head coach Pete Carroll expects him to play, it remains to be seen. Finally, wide receiver Percy Harvin also did not practice on Thursday due to a nagging hip injury, and it appears unlikely he will play.
The final thing to consider going into Sunday’s game: this appears to be the final day game the 49ers will ever play at Candlestick Park. With the final home game being a Monday night game (December 23rd vs. Atlanta) and the home playoff game seemingly out-of-reach, this seems to be the final time the 49ers will get to play under the San Francisco sun. Head coach Jim Harbaugh dropped an inspiring quote during his press conference on Wednesday, saying,
“If this doesn't fire you up, if this doesn't fire up the fans then what does? I suppose Abraham Lincoln riding across the field with a frock and a top hat, riding a horse, waving an American flag. I doubt that would fire them up, if this game doesn't fire them up.”
As random as that is, Harbaugh is correct: the 49er fans will be fired up for this game, the likely second-to-last game in their home for the past 43 years.
There are a lot of storylines to this game that are always evident in 49ers-Seahawks games: the rivalry between Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh, which dates back to their college coaching days in the Pac-10; Seattle CB Richard Sherman, who played for Harbaugh at Stanford, still holds bitter feelings towards his old head coach over his playing time when at Stanford; the transaction war that Seattle general manager John Schneider and San Francisco general manager Trent Baalke, who seem to sign players from the other team every few weeks. All of these get a major chunk of press coverage on the West Coast.
But, there is a storyline for this game that is recognized nationally: these are two of the best teams in the league, and they do NOT like each other.
This rivalry game should be the best game of the weekend.