As usual, the NFL is off to a very confusing start. The Kansas City Chiefs, the worst team by record last year, are undefeated despite the woes of its offensive line, a supposed strength at the start of the season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking at a potential clean-house scenario in the offseason, the worst possible scenario for a club that prides itself on stability and constant championship contention.
And the Indianapolis Colts, everyone’s favorite candidate for regression in 2013, just blew out the San Francisco 49ers, the defending NFC champions. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck threw for under 200 yards. Trent Richardson had a meager 2.7 yards per carry. The new era-Colts didn’t have the opportunity to pull off their trademark comeback.
Indy won a brawl against the most punch-happy team in the league. Was that ever said when Peyton Manning and Bill Polian were running the show? Second-year head coach Chuck Pagano wants to build a monster, and if the Colts start winning games in this fashion, instead of sneaking by teams in the Clowney sweepstakes, he may have already created one.
It’s Denver and everyone else in regards to the early AFC playoff picture, but Indianapolis could contend for one of the top seeds due to its schedule. The Seahawks, Broncos, Bengals and Texans were playoff teams last year, but Indy also gets four games against the Jaguars and Titans. A 12-4 record is definitely in play for a team that went 2-14 just two years ago. The Colts timed their disaster season perfectly; the right quarterback selection and the right head coaching hire can transform the outlook of a team overnight. They certainly nailed their choices with Luck and Pagano.
A good running back doesn’t mean what it used to, but Indianapolis gave up just as much for Richardson as it did for Luck. The former Browns runner has not had as much of an impact in the professional ranks as draft analysts originally predicted, but Richardson stands out as a between-the-tackles battering ram and a pass protector. Those strengths bring two things to the table that the Colts desperately need since Vick Ballard tore his ACL: physicality to their offense and less hits on their franchise quarterback, which has become a major problem for the Colts.
Luck took a league-leading 116 hits as a passer last season. The protection hasn’t improved this season, and he might be going the way of Robert Griffin III if drastic changes aren’t made. Indianapolis took a gamble with the Richardson trade, and even if Richardson becomes Edgerrin James 2.0 (which his statistics don’t suggest), he can’t be protecting Luck’s blindside on every pass attempt. The Colts have quality starters at every skill position thanks to the NFL draft or a blockbuster trade; Luck, Richardson, the ageless Reggie Wayne, the blocking stud Dwayne Allen and the dynamic T.Y. Hilton. But Detroit during the Matt Millen regime and Dallas for the past several years used this philosophy during their long offseasons and neither did or have done anything notable.
But neither of those teams had Luck, the NFL’s most valuable asset at this point in time. As Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are questioning the ability of their signal callers, Indianapolis is sitting in a very comfortable position for the division title.
The Texans have much more talent-wise than the Colts, but their window is much, much smaller. Arian Foster is putting up Richardson-esque statistics. Andre Johnson is a game-time decision every week and is on the wrong side of 30. Matt Schaub has regressed every year since 2009.
The other side of the ball has fewer question marks, but the age-old adage of defense winning championships has not been accurate in these past few seasons. The Titans and the Jaguars are treading water for Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. They are a nonfactor.
The AFC South isn’t completely under wraps for Indianapolis, but its resume in these first few weeks of the season is infinitely more impressive than its division counterparts. The rest of the NFL is waiting for the Colts matchup with the Broncos in October before a conclusion is reached. There is one thing we do know about the Colts: you can never count them out of any game this year. They aren’t waiting for the draft to pick up more skill position players, or waiting for free agency to fill their holes on defense. The Richardson trade made it obvious that owner Jim Irsay is putting all of his cards on the table. That might not get the team through Denver, but they have about as good of a chance as anyone else.