It’s the last of the conference tournaments to finish on Selection Sunday. The Atlantic Coast Tournament commences on Thursday, March 14 with the most unlikely of No. 1 seeds in the University of Miami.
The preseason favorite North Carolina State University played streaky basketball throughout the season. Duke University received a late-season boost from senior forward Ryan Kelly, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill powered its way to what seemed at one point to be an improbable No. 3 seed early in the season and the University of Virginia Cavaliers did what they do best: play solid defense on their way to repeating as the No. 4 seed like they did in 2012.
Already gone
There are not a lot of teams that don’t have a chance to win the ACC this year. Throughout the season, each of the 12 teams proved any team can win on a given night. Clemson University had a rough year going 13-17 overall, 5-13 in the conference. The Tigers don’t have any momentum heading into the first round matchup with the Florida State University Seminoles having lost nine of their last 10 games to finish the year.
Georgia Tech had an up and down season. The Yellow Jackets beat then No 6 Miami by two in Coral Gables, Fla., but then lost to Boston College, who they will play again in the first round for the right to play Miami again on Friday.
Wake Forest and Boston College are two teams that are in a similar boat. They can pull the surprise but it’s not likely, especially considering both teams would have to win four games in four days.
The sleepers
I’m not afraid to go out on a limb. Maybe Virginia Tech should be in the “Already gone” category. I don’t think so. Sure they only won four games in conference, but when you have one of the nation’s leading scorers in senior guard Erick Green, something says you always have a shot.
N.C. State might not come as a “sleeper” team necessarily being the conference preseason favorite, but they finished the season with a four-point loss to Florida State. The Wolfpack lost seven conference games to finish 11-7. The worst margin of loss came on Feb. 7 at Duke with an 13-point loss to the Blue Devils. They lost by 11 to North Carolina on Feb. 23, but outside of that, the Wolfpack lost five more games by a total of 11 points. That included two buzzer beaters by the University of Maryland and Miami.
The favorite
Ryan Kelly has returned, and there’s no denying Duke is really good with him on the floor. The numbers say it all, as they have not lost when Kelly plays. In his 13 game absence during the ACC season, Duke lost four times: once to N.C. State in Raleigh, once to Virginia in Charlottesville, once to Maryland in College Park and once to Miami at Coral Gables. As the No. 2 seed behind the Hurricanes, Duke might have to face hated-rival North Carolina again on semifinal Saturday should both teams win on Friday night.
Miami is a good basketball team, but they don’t have quite enough to beat the Blue Devils with Ryan Kelly. When the Hurricanes trounced Duke 90-63 in Coral Gables, Kelly was in street clothes. When Kelly was in uniform, Duke beat then No. 5 by three, 79-76.
Roy Williams’ Tar Heels are going to need a little bit of luck with such an inexperienced team, and Virginia is going to need to play solid defense three days in a row or they will get beat, as they rank No. 256 in the country in point scored per game at 64.3.
At the beginning of the season, the ACC landscape seemed to be painted Wolfpack red. After the regular season, Miami green took over, but the ACC held strong with the shades of blue in top spots. Nothing much has changed and nothing will change. The dark shade of blue – Duke blue – should take home the ACC title and earn a No. 1 seed in next week’s NCAA Tournament.