I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a bracket this up in the air since I first filled one out in 2002. Regardless of that, this year seems to be a sure-fire toss-up.

In that case, I only have one choice — stick to the favorites.

Predicting upsets is one of the most difficult things that come with every year’s bracket. This year, I’m tempted to take a handful of No. 6, 7 and 8 seeds to the Final Four. But I won’t do that. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, it’s been a No. 1 or 2 seed cutting down the nets 75.9 percent of the time. That’s 22 of 29 tries. While this year might seem like a year in which a lower seed comes out of nowhere to win it all, it seems to me like a year where perennial powers and the same teams we’ve been talking about all year end up playing that first weekend of April.

That’s why, after vehemently saying all year that the Gators would not win the national championship, am I picking Florida to win it all. Not only are they all healthy, but they’re on a 26-game win streak, second only to Wichita State’s 34-game winning streak. Florida’s only two losses were to ranked teams — teams that could be major threats in this tournament — in UConn and Wisconsin.

Joining them in the Final Four, I went with Arizona, Duke and Michigan State. Arizona’s been near the top all year and has shown a sense of resolve since losing forward Brandon Ashley for the season due to injury. Duke has too many weapons, and if the Blue Devils catch fire, they can beat anyone. Michigan State sort of fell off the face of the earth midway through the season after being ranked No. 1 at one point, but the Spartans seem to be a sexy choice out of the East after winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Teams to watch out for include No. 6 Massachusetts (Midwest), No. 10 St. Joseph’s (East) and No. 9 Oklahoma State (West). All three, with some help of course, have the potential to make a surprise Final Four run.

I really am looking forward to Tuesday’s First Four matchup between Xavier  and North Carolina State . Matt Stainbrook of Xavier against ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren? Yes, please! It will be intriguing to see how Xavier tries to handle Warren. The winner gets No. 5 St. Louis, and I think the winner beats the Billikens, too.

 

We at The Pendulum want to hear your take on the NCAA Tournament! Tweet us at @pendulumsports with your brackets, tips and insight. Also, tweet Tommy at @THamzikELON to critique his bracket.