By Michael Hermanson
Seattle (+11) over New Orleans
At 7-9, including 3-7 over the last 10 games of the year the Seahawks are the only team to ever make the playoffs with a sub .500 record. Clipboard Jesus looked like a mediocre quarterback against the Rams and the Seahawks looked like not the worst team in the league! All of this is good news for the Seahawks, who despite their record are probably one of the 5 worst teams in the league. This week, they match up this week against the defending world champions. So why did I pick the Seahawks you ask? Not so fast, my friend. With both Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas being placed on injured reserve, the Saints will have to rely on Julius Jones and a recovering Reggie Bush at running back this week. You may say, “OK, so what? Reggie Bush won the Heisman and while I don’t know what Julius Jones looks like, he doesn’t sound terrible”. Bush lost the Heisman and let’s take a look at Jones’ stats, since the BYE week, after all who cares what happened before then?
25 rushes, 72 yards for a 2.9 average, a long of 9 yards, 0 TD, 1 FUM
Just horrific, awful stats. Another Notre Dame alum really proving himself in the NFL. Reggie Bush is at least a better weapon, in both the rushing and receiving game, but he’s been fighting injuries all year. With that as their running game (even if Justin Forsett and the Seahawks may make them look like Adrian Peterson), the Saints will certainly be hurting this week. Earlier this year, Bush lost his Heisman trophy partly because Pete Carroll spoke out against his former running back. In defense of his player, Sean Payton decided to run up the score when these two teams played each other earlier, throwing for the end zone up 15 in the last 30 seconds. Time for Karma to catch up with Sean Payton! Matt Hasselbeck will be back for the Seahawks, who at least looked average against the Rams last Sunday. While I am very confident that New Orleans will win this game, 11 points is just too many points. A positive working for the Seahawks is that Matt Hasselbeck has been better against the blitz in his career than against a normal rush. Guess what Greg Williams does a lot on defense? Bingo, he throws 6 and 7 man rushes in more often than any other DC in the league. While the Seahawks are clearly overmatched, little things like that could help Seattle keep it close. When you add home field advantage and the fact that this is a playoff game into the mix, I think Seattle can keep it close.
Indianapolis (-3) over New York
Saturday’s theme of poor rushing games continues in this game with Indianapolis. The Colts don’t have a 500-yard rusher this year for the first time in their 9-year playoff run. That isn’t due to lack of skill at the position but rather how many injuries have affected the Colts this season. Top runners Donald Brown and Joseph Addai have forced the Colts to put in running backs like Mike Hart, Dominic Rhodes, and Javarris James. Addai has taken limited carries in the Colts’ last 2 games and he and Dominic Rhodes should split carries against the Jets. While the Colts’ running game isn’t great, they do have Peyton Manning. Manning has been putting up tons of pass attempts this year because his running game is no good, and the Colts are always in close games due to their atrocious defense. Rex Ryan is always praised for his defense, so can the Jets stop the one dimensional Colts? I don’t think so. They allowed the Bears to put up 38 points, and the Bears have one of the 5 worst offenses in the league. While the Jets winning this game wouldn’t shock me at all since the Colts have struggled so much this year, I don’t trust Mark Sanchez to win a road playoff game just like I don’t trust Rex Ryan to give me a foot massage. Against the Patriots and Bears, the Jets just looked extremely vulnerable on defense, and I think Peyton Manning should be able to put up 35 points or more on the Jets. With the spread at just 3 points, if the Colts win they should cover, and I think the Colts will win. The way the Jets will win this game is if they get out to an early lead and eat clock by running with Shonn Greene and Ladanian Tomlinson. Let’s remember that the Colts started this season 6-6 and half of the Colts wins this year have come by less than a touchdown. They have had good rush defenses the last few weeks, especially holding Chris Johnson to under 50 yards, but their secondary has been vulnerable all year long. I like the Colts because of #18, and I’m going to take him in the wild card round until he loses.