Led by the early drop-out of former Sen. Jim Webb and propelled by a “no” from Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic competition for the 2016 presidency has been halved in a work-week’s time. The narrowing of the field could actually hurt front-runner Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State, in the long run, according to an expert from the Elon University Poll.
“I think it is disappointing for the Democratic Party because they would have gained a lot more publicity,” said Kenneth Fernandez, director of the Elon University Poll and assistant professor of political science and policy studies. “I think this will hurt Hillary [Clinton] in the long run because winning the primary against Biden — greater competition — would be a lot more impressive than the field she faces right now. But on the flip side, the GOP probably wanted him to run so Hillary [Clinton] would be forced to spend more money to make sure she won.”
Biden’s departure from a race he never started in some ways over-shadowed the withdrawals of former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, both of whom never gained much ground in the polls.
In his announcement Wednesday, Joe Biden, a former senator from Delaware, continued to mourn the unexpected death of his son Beau, 46, last May. While the Bidens were prepared to undergo the trying ordeal of a presidential bid, that realization came too late to be competitive in the polls, he said.
Beau Biden, former Delaware attorney general and an Iraq war veteran, died after a prolonged bout with brain cancer.
“His death must have been emotionally exhausting for Biden,” Fernandez said. “If all that energy is being sapped from you, do you have the energy to be the sitting vice president on top of all the added stress of the campaign to win the presidency?”
Biden, 72, ran for president twice, once in 1988 and again in 2008, before flirting with the 2016 presidency. He originally intended to announce his decision before Labor Day. But as the weeks passed, uncertainty lingered, so much so that CNN left a podium open for him in Las Vegas during the Democratic Debate Oct. 13. But the vacant seat collected only dust.
“It would have made for great television if Biden dramatically appeared at the debate,” Fernandez said. “But once he didn’t show up, I was confident that he wasn’t going to run.”
Even if Biden decided to run in mid-October, the numbers weren’t in his favor. Seventeen percent of the sample would vote for Biden, placing him behind Bernie Sanders (24.2 percent) and front-runner Hillary Clinton (50.1 percent), according to The Huffington Post Pollster.
The Elon University Poll, a conductor of large regional and statewide surveys on policy and political issues, conducted a poll February 2014 that found Clinton ahead of Biden by a margin of 40.8 percent. Many of those who answered said they believed Biden was past his prime.